Forecast for Phoenicids in 2008 , 2014 , and 2019
نویسندگان
چکیده
We report here on a complete forecast of the activity of future Phoenicid meteor showers in the period 2008– 2020. We detail predictions of Phoenicids activities during three years: 2008, 2014, and 2019. In 2008, the trail of 1866 will intersect with the Earth orbit. In 2014, the origin of the activity will be due to several trails formed from the 19th to the early 20th centuries. The display in 2014 will be the most spectacular meteor showers among the three cases because of a favorable geometric condition. In 2019, the Earth will approach four trails formed between 1872 and 1882, and one trail of 1946. Since the parent body had not been observed during the above-mentioned period, the activity of these meteor showers is important for estimating the degree of cometary activity for this parent body during this period.
منابع مشابه
تحلیل روند گذشته و پیشبینی آینده خشکسالی در استان اصفهان
The geographical location of Isfahan province has led the province to be at risk of drought. One of the ways to mitigate drought is evaluation and monitoring of drought based on indices that can determine its intensity and permanence in each region. In this research, for drought and trend analysis standard precipitation index and Mann-Kendall test were used, respectively. Also, monthly precipit...
متن کاملCommon Factors of CPI Sub-aggregates and Forecast of Inflation
In this paper, we investigate whether incorporating common factors of CPI sub-aggregates into forecasting models increases the accuracy of forecasts of inflation. We extract factors by both static and dynamic factor models and then embed them in ARMA and VAR models. Using quarterly data of Iran’s CPI and its sub-aggregates, the models are estimated over 1990:2 to 2008:2 and out of sample ...
متن کاملThe Variance-covariance Method using IOWGA Operator for Tourism Forecast Combination
Three combination methods commonly used in tourism forecasting are the simple average method, the variance-covariance method and the discounted MSFE method. These methods assign the different weights that can not change at each time point to each individual forecasting model. In this study, we introduce the IOWGA operator combination method which can overcome the defect of previous three combin...
متن کاملForecast of Iran’s Electricity Consumption Using a Combined Approach of Neural Networks and Econometrics
Electricity cannot be stored and needs huge amount of capital so producers and consumers pay special attention to predict electricity consumption. Besides, time-series data of the electricity market are chaotic and complicated. Nonlinear methods such as Neural Networks have shown better performance for predicting such kind of data. We also need to analyze other variables affecting electricity c...
متن کاملApplying Semi-Markov Models for forecasting the Triple Dimensions of Next Earthquake Occurrences: with Case Study in Iran Area
In this paper Semi-Markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. Semi-Markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. In Semi-Markov models each zone can be considered as a sta...
متن کامل